What Turkish PM really meant at Davos

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been hailed as a hero in his home country after he exploded at Shimon Peres during the recent World Economic Forum at Davos over the number of Palestinian casualties following the recent Israeli incursion into Gaza. Before storming off stage in protest at not being given enough time to talk by the moderator, he said to the Israeli President: "When it comes to killing - you know killing very well. I know how you hit, kill children on the beaches."

While many people across the world naturally disagree over whether the Israeli offensive was justified or not, what I find hardest to believe is that Erdogan in any way shape or form meant what he said. Even more surprisingly perhaps though is that Shimon Peres later appeared to forgive the Turkish PM for his very public onslaught, insisting that relations between Turkey and Israel had not been affected, despite never even receiving an apology.

Why do I find it so difficult to believe Erdogan meant what he said? Predominantly because his outburst ran contrary to the role Turkey seems to be carving for itself as the neutral moderator of all Middle East conflicts, but also because he has not one leg to stand on when it comes to illegal occupations and the killing of innocent civillians.

How can Prime Minister Erdogan come out with such a tirade against Israel and then invite the leader of Sudan round for tea while he is being investigated by the UN for genocide in Darfur? How can he castigate President Peres for his country's reliance on the use of force while launching incursions into Iraq to take out Kurdish separatists? And how can he condemn the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories and simulataneously defend his own country's illegal occupation of Cyprus - the closest international parallel there is to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict?

The answer is that far from being a loose cannon, Mr Erdogan is in fact a masterful strategist, calculating his tone, his target and his timing perfectly. In short, by launching into a full blown attack on Shimon Peres, he managed to take advantage of the crisis in Gaza to align his country's strategic priorities with those of his electorate.

Desperate to confer further public legitimacy on his premiership, and see off the secular elements of the Turkish political and military establishment who fear and suspect the Islamic credentials of him and his party, Erdogan knows how important the upcoming local elections are. A poll taken of Turkish public opinion for a global survey in July last year on Israeli-Palestinian relations showed Turkey to be one of only three countries, out of the 18 surveyed across the West and the Middle East, who heavily favoured the Palestinians. Once the invasion of Gaza began to dominate the headlines, he doubtless saw an opportunity to score big points with the voters.

Taking a closer look at Turkey's relationship with its neighbours, it also became clear that Erdogan had nothing to lose in taking a swipe at Israel, once its stalwart ally against the surrounding Arab countries, hence President Peres's subsequent insistence that there were no hard feelings between the two countries. Since Iran, with its nuclear weapons programme, re-emerged as the biggest threat in the Middle East, Turkey has exploited its cordial relationship with both Iran and the United States to establish itself as the peacemaker of the region upon whom eveyone, including Israel, is now pinning their hopes on peacefully resolving the brewing cold war with Iran.

Turkey has made itself invaluable to the United States and Iran, desperate to avoid a war, invaluable to its Arab neighbours desperate to avoid the regional instability that another war in the Middle East would cause, and also invaluable to Israel who are vulnerable to Iranian funded rocket and terrorist attacks, yet powerless (in spite of their posturing) to do anything about it. Thus Erdogan has been freed to open his arms to the Palestinians as so many of his people demand, even offering Hamas a state reception following their election victory in 2006.

In other words, that's what Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan really meant at Davos.