Gordon Brown Trousers - a gift to the Lib Dems

When I heard the news that there was to be no election after all either this Autumn or, in all likelihood, next year, I thought to myself: 'this stinks' - and I wasn't just talking about Gordon Brown's pantelones. I was looking forward to the contest, especially in my home constituency where we have by far the best candidate of all three parties along with control of most of its wards. However, given a day to reflect, I have concluded that this is in fact the best thing that could have happened to the Lib Dems. Don't get me wrong, they could have done well if an election was called for November, even if they lost a few seats, because Labour and the Tories would finish so close together, the balance of power would rest with us - I mean the Liberal Democrats. It was this that got me thinking today.


The Liberal Democrats have perpetually been in something of a political quagmire since their inception in 1988. They have no track record on being in power nationally - not since the days of Lloyd George anyway- and with no real natural core vote like Labour or the Tories and no distinctive identity to make clear how a Lib Dem government would be different from any other, many people dismiss them as being merely a protest party despite the fine work of many Lib Dem councils and MPs throughout the country. The elctorate needs to believe that the party they're voting for can run the country, and as long as the Lib Dems lack this experience, a natural core vote and a distinictive identity to get them up the opinion polls, their future chances of forming a government will remain increasingly bleak. In other words, at this point, the only way the Liberal Democrats could convince the people they were ready to govern would be if they were in government.

Ironically, however, the resurgence of both Labour and the Tories, albeit at the Lib Dems' expense, marks a unique opportunity for them for if there had been an election in November, regardless of who won, the Lib Dems share of seats would almost certainly have exceeded the difference between the Tories' and Labour's totals, forcing whichever of the two formed a government to court the party's support in order to get their own legislation through Parliament.

It is this that should be shaping the Lib Dem campaign; not trying to form a government and be the biggest party in Parliament - even the most enthusiastic supporter knows that won't be happening any time soon- but on holding Labour and the Conservatives, regardless of which one forms a government in 2009, to account. Furthermore, the party leadership should refrain from making any major policy proposals to allow Parliamentary candidates to tailor their campaigns to the most pressing local issues in each seat, deciding centrally only the party's key positions and beliefs. This would prevent major inconsistencies in party pledges from emerging whilst concentrating the leadership's efforts on crafting a truly unique and comprehensive identity for the party. Most importantly though, it would allow the Lib Dems to do what they do best; vigorous and committed local campaigning focusing on local issues and increasing the party's share of seats in Parliament constituency by constituency.

The logic of such a strategy is that the party need not worry about appearing as the protest party when the public already perceive them to be just that. Instead, such a perception should be welcomed and recognised for what it is - a license to criticise without the expectation of proposing policy. At a time when vast swathes of the public are highly suspicious of the two leading parties' motives and methods and unclear at times of how the two are even any different, a party that marketed itself specifically as the Devil's advocate would surely be welcomed with open arms by the electorate.

Once the election was over, with the difference in seats between the Tories and Labour likely to be quite small, the Lib Dems would then be able to use their presence to influence if not decide the passage of legislation, either as an independent third party or as a coalition partner in the government. Hence, by building on the step by step progress in constitutencies across the country and their existing MPs' enduring reputations for commitment, competence and candour along with a freshly forged and distinctive identity and presence in government, the Lib Dems could finally be a force to be reckoned with. However, such a transformation would also require the party to address the issues of party unity, funding and leadership that continue to hinder its progress.

Until then, Ming Campbell and the Liberal Democrats need to recognise that the public cannot be fooled that easily -as Gordon Brown is learning right now- and that they will need to do more than pretend they are as big as the Conservatives and Labour to convince the public they are. So rather than constantly trying to punch above their weight, they should embrace their size and the opportunities that come with being the protest party and simply say: we may be small, but we bite! Thankfully, Gordon Brown has given them an extra two years to find their feet and become the real opposition.